In 1974, within the hidden chambers of American power, a confidential policy document was created that would subtly influence decades of U.S. relations with Nigeria. Known as the Kissinger Report or National Security Study Memorandum 200 (NSSM 200), it was no typical diplomatic note; it represented a detailed plan.
Commissioned by then-Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, the report pinpointed Nigeria as one of 13 pivotal nations whose escalating populations and resource riches could impact U.S. economic and security interests.
If Nigeria’s populace grew excessively, they might exhaust their own oil, gas, and mineral resources, which Washington deemed crucial for its prosperity.
The report concluded that population management was not merely a humanitarian issue; it was integral to U.S. national security.
At that time, Nigeria’s population was a little over 60 million. The report forecasted rapid expansion, perceiving this trend not as a sign of progress but rather as an operational challenge.
Uncontrolled demographic growth, it cautioned, could foster instability, reroute resources toward local demands, and lessen the vital flow of commodities, primarily oil, to the United States.
What was the proposed remedy? Utilize foreign assistance, health initiatives, and development collaborations to advocate for fertility reduction and decelerate population growth in high-risk nations like Nigeria.
This approach wasn’t born of altruism. It was resource management, aligning not with Nigeria’s welfare, but with America’s interests.
The memo emphasized increased U.S. investments in population-related initiatives as both urgent and necessary.
Today, this legacy persists, albeit with a corporate spin.
The Kissinger Report positioned foreign aid as a strategic instrument. Assistance could be employed to promote population policies leading to fewer births and more resources available for export.
It’s a form of soft imperialism, masking resource control as humanitarian outreach, reducing sovereign entities to mere resource depots for the West.
The framework envisions a diminished, weaker Nigeria that can be more easily influenced, more amenable to negotiation, and less capable of contesting foreign dominion over its oil, minerals, and markets.
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An Investigation by West Africa Weekly reveals that the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Pfizer, CIFF, USAID, UNFPA, the World Bank, GAVI, and others are inundating sub-Saharan Africa, particularly Nigeria, with long-lasting contraceptives like Sayana Press injectables, implants, and IUDs. These are inexpensive, subsidized, and primarily aimed at low- and lower-middle-income African countries.
While marketed as empowerment, this practice is rife with coercion. Contracts include fertility targets and quotas, and the design of programs is centralized in Western capitals; African researchers and communities often find themselves excluded.
They label it ‘choice,’ yet the only option they advocate is long-acting contraception. That’s not choice; it’s pressure. And yet again: it’s colonization through health care. Africans are not steering these initiatives; they are being driven by outsiders.
The article also highlights ethical violations where women are being fitted with IUDs or injectables during emergencies or childbirth, with little counseling, education on side effects, or informed consent.
Now, in 2025, Nigeria’s populace has exceeded 220 million. The youth demographic is significant, yet unemployment rates are shocking, inflation is eroding wages, and the naira is plummeting.
Then, President Bola Tinubu stepped in, a mere puppet, whose administration was never intended to disrupt this cycle, but rather to entrench Nigeria in the vulnerabilities the Kissinger Report counted on.
Tinubu’s rapid implementation of subsidy cuts and currency devaluation echoes the playbook of international financial institutions swayed by U.S. policy. These actions have exacerbated poverty and shattered domestic purchasing power, rendering Nigeria more reliant on foreign loans and trade.
Despite local shortages and refining inadequacies, crude oil continues to be exported in vast volumes. Simultaneously, refined fuel is imported at elevated prices, keeping Nigeria tethered to the whims of global market fluctuations.
His administration has wooed Western oil and gas firms with tax incentives and breaks, while communities in the Niger Delta endure pollution, displacement, and economic neglect.
Effectively, Tinubu’s strategies are aiding Washington and its allies in securing the resource flows mandated by the Kissinger Report, while leaving Nigerians to endure the economic repercussions.
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When Washington characterized population growth as a threat, it wasn’t regarding Nigeria’s progress but rather U.S. consumption.
Under Tinubu, the structural disparities persist as resources drain out, debt burdens accumulate, and domestic capacities remain stunted.
The Kissinger Report’s twin objective, to maintain Nigeria’s political stability to produce resources while keeping it economically frail enough to depend on external sources, is arguably being realized at this very moment.
Supporters of Tinubu argue that his reforms are tough but essential. However, strategies formulated in Washington and approved in Abuja have a history of exacerbating dependence, privatizing gains, and distributing hardship among the masses.
Although the Kissinger Report is over half a century old, its perspective is still relevant, and Nigeria’s worth is perceived in its exports rather than its domestic achievements. The current danger is that Tinubu’s adherence to external economic policies will entrap Nigeria in yet another cycle of underdevelopment, ensuring that Washington’s Cold War-era vision of a submissive, resource-abundant Nigeria persists.
The genuine threat to Nigeria has never been its demographic growth. It was, and continues to be, the readiness of its leaders to handle that growth in ways that prioritize foreign interests above all.
If Nigeria’s leadership fails to shift this paradigm, the country’s prospects will continue to be merely a secondary point in someone else’s strategic document.